Life is Limited.

Let's recognize this: for lots of reasons we can't understand, life is simultaneously more complicated and restricted than we can fully comprehend.  We don't fully control the trajectory of our own lives, much less other people's lives, and everyone generally acts out of what they think at the time is a good idea, however much we might disagree from outside.  The basic fact remains that who we chose to be vulnerable with, and who choses to be vulnerable with us (vulnerable: showing or expressing emotions that you would only look at fully alone, and/or asking for advice on key life issues, and listening, developing an ear, and offering those things) is going to play a large role in determining how we see the world and how the world appears to us.  If we're always inflated by grand ideas and unobtainable dreams, we may in fact be doing some harm to those that we're in fact closest to, and that harm might simply be the negligence of our own expansive ideals, the underbelly, if you will.  In that case, maybe it is time to roll up the sleeves and make some pot roast.

Smoking, Reasons.

1) Associative: Smokers can leave the confines of whatever restrictive social coalition has formed and break from it in a way that is justified (although decreasingly so in many parts of the country and world).

2) Happenstance: Smoking is extremely physically addictive, so having been exposed without large reprimand, or prohibitive barriers (high cost) smoking activities can continue.

3) Dominance: In a group of people (particularly young men), smoking can show dominance, in that it shows capacity to access a black market good, is a visible marker of one's ability to garner limited resources.

4) Status:  Smoking looks very cool and sexy. It can elevate one's standing in a group (though does not always do so).

5) Substitute for food: Practically speaking, smoking deters eating, at least temporarily, so quitting smoking usually results in an uptick of caloric intake.

6) Others?

Character, complex, misunderstood, faces adversity, hits bottom,

gets depressed, gets an insight, some hope, strives, suffers setback, succeeds, is modest about success even though obvious that character is the sole reason for characters success.

2. character, overly confident, suffers a loss, goes through a journey, finds hope in wrong places, discovers new found appreciation for the mundane, prosaic shit that is everyday life, eyes are opened, and character leverages previous status to open other people's eyes, even though they don't at first listen.

3. character suffers loss of child.  see 1.

4.  character, overly depressed, struggles, gives up, dies. life after death is revealed.  choices must still be made.  audience leaves whispering about insight.

5.  character kidnaps supposed rapist of daughter, changes him into a woman and falls in love with him/her.  "the skin i live in."

Optimism Bias

We consistently face decisions that are, at their core, predictions about future events.  When we are principally involved though, we suffer from an insider status (as per Kahneman in his new book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, link).  In short, we attach much higher probability to our own successful read of the situation, and ultimate completion of a task, than base rates (rates across high numbers of the same situation/task completed by similar folks) would predict.  We consistently under-appreciate other people's experience of an event that we must now navigate and over-estimate our own capacity.    This works in the construction business, where add-ons are common (and I'm here to testify to their existence!), and to the absolutely horribly ability of CFOs at large companies to have any idea what the stock market will do in the future, and for psychoanalysts to help their patients with talk therapy.

Much more of what exists, i.e. how things turn out, is due to luck and chance than it is to our will.  That's not a nice story, but it is an accurate one.

Prison = Redistribution of Wealth

In a very real way, committing a serious enough crime to get locked up is a desperate measure to get some kind of governmental aid.  Prison isn't cheap, especially if you're a youthful offender.   It is far more expensive--per slot, per year--than education or full-time child care.

More on this when I have time to research.

Women: You Are Better.

Women: You are often times better than the men you are with.  You don't leave because you fear rejection and isolation, because we all have a bias toward familiarity and the present--but you don't have to let this keep you down.

Thinking About Death and Life and Years in Monetary Terms.

It is easy to fantasize about making a lot of money.

It is much more depressing to actually calculate how much money you or I would need to stop working, because it means that we'd need to calculate our expenses on a yearly/monthly basis until our terminal point, our deaths.  And we can do the math, with a few assumptions.

I'm 30 years old.  I'll most likely live to about 80. That's 50 years.

Current monthly expenses: approximately 2000-2500, so about $30,000 after taxes to live at current levels without any bumps in the road, or new purchases (like a car).

But let's build in an extra $10,000 a year for those interruptions.  Now I need $40,000.

And then we'd need to take into account some inflation.  Okay, let's assume an even 5%  Now I must open excel.  Perhaps though I can get an average rate of return from investments equal to about 5%.

And let's say tax is approximately 30%.

So, an income of $60,000 yields $42,000 after taxes.  That's enough given the above assumptions.   Now, 60k * 50 years = $3.0 million.

There you have it folks.  Simple, assumption loaded.  Anyone have 3 million around so I can retire early?

Edit: It is more than likely that if I actually had that money I wouldn't be capable of budgeting it appropriately, and that I'd value the present higher and spend accordingly--30k when you have 3,000,000 looks a lot different than when you have 42,000.